Future Trends in computer

In the past thirty years, computer technology advances have fundamentally changed the practice of business and personal computing. During these three decades, the wide acceptance of personal computers and the explosive growth in the performance, capability, and reliability of computers have fostered a new era of computing. The driving forces behind this new computing revolution are due primarily to rapid advances in computer architecture and semiconductor technologies. From the past times too, we use the computer as our most reliable and efficient working device.

HISTORY OF COMPUTER

From the past time i.e. when abacus was introduced to till date, we always expect our device to run much faster and smoother with maximum accuracy we can get.

First Generation (1940-1956) Vacuum Tubes: The first computers used vacuum tubes for circuitry and magnetic drums for memory, and were often enormous, taking up entire rooms. They were very expensive to operate and in addition to using a great deal of electricity, generated a lot of heat, which was often the cause of malfunctions. First generation computers relied on machine language, the lowest-level programming language understood by computers, to perform operations, and they could only solve one problem at a time. The input was based on punched cards and paper tape, and output was displayed on printouts. UNIVAC and ENIAC computers are examples of first-generation computing devices. The UNIVAC was the first commercial computer delivered to a business client, the U.S. Census Bureau in 1951.

Second Generation (1956-1963) Transistors: Transistors replaced vacuum tubes and ushered in the second generation of computers. The transistor was invented in 1947 but did not see widespread use in computers until the late 1950s. The transistor was far superior to the vacuum tube, allowing computers to become smaller, faster, cheaper, more energy-efficient and more reliable than their first-generation predecessors. Though the transistor still generated a great deal of heat that subjected the computer to damage, it was a vast improvement over the vacuum tube. Second-generation computers still relied on punched cards for input and printouts for output. Second-generation computers moved from cryptic binary machine language to symbolic or assembly languages, which allowed programmers to specify instructions in words. High-level programming languages were also being developed at this time, such as early versions of COBOL and FORTRAN. These were also the first computers that stored their instructions in their memory, which moved from a magnetic drum to magnetic core technology.

Third Generation (1964-1971) Integrated Circuits: The development of the integrated circuit was the hallmark of the third generation of computers. Transistors were miniaturized and placed on silicon chips, called semiconductors, which drastically increased the speed and efficiency of computers. Instead of punched cards and printouts, users interacted with third generation computers through keyboards and monitors and interfaced with an operating system, which allowed the device to run many different applications at one time with a central program that monitored the memory. Computers for the first time became accessible to a mass audience because they were smaller and cheaper than their predecessors.

Fourth Generation (1971-Present) Microprocessors: The microprocessor brought the fourth generation of computers, as thousands of integrated circuits were built onto a single silicon chip. What is the first generation filled an entire room could now fit in the palm of the hand? The Intel 4004 chip, developed in 1971, located all the components of the computer—from the central processing unit and memory to input/output controls—on a single chip. In 1981 IBM introduced its first computer for the home user, and in 1984 Apple introduced the Macintosh. Microprocessors also moved out of the realm of desktop computers and into many areas of life as more and more everyday products began to use microprocessors. As these small computers became more powerful, they could be linked together to form networks, which eventually led to the development of the Internet. Fourth generation computers also saw the development of GUI's, the mouse and handheld devices.

Fifth Generation (Present and Beyond) Artificial Intelligence: Fifth generation computing devices, based on artificial intelligence, are still in development, though there are some applications, such as voice recognition, that are being used today. The use of parallel processing and superconductors is helping to make artificial intelligence a reality. Quantum computation and molecular and nanotechnology will radically change the face of computers in years to come. The goal of fifth-generation computing is to develop devices that respond to natural language input and are capable of learning and self-organization.

What is parallel processing?

The simultaneous use of more than one CPU to execute a program is called parallel processing. Ideally, parallel processing makes a program run faster because there are more engines (CPUs) running it. In practice, it is often difficult to divide a program in such a way that separate CPUs can execute different portions without interfering with each other. Most computers have just one CPU, but some models have several. There are even computers with thousands of CPUs. With single-CPU computers, it is possible to perform parallel processing by connecting the computers in a network. However, this type of parallel processing requires very sophisticated software called distributed processing software.

What is a Quantum Computer?

A quantum computer is a computer design which uses the principles of quantum physics to increase the computational power beyond what is attainable by a traditional computer. Quantum computers have been built on a small scale and work continues to upgrade them to more practical models. In a quantum computer, the initial state of the quantum register together with the unitary transformations that need to be applied on this state depends on the problem. But this is done mathematically, and it is not clear whether the many hurdles that confront the actual building of these computers will ever be overcome.

Moore’s Law for Microprocessor: "The numbers of transistors incorporated in a chip will approximately double every 24 months." This was a statement by Gordon Moore. Now also his law is being followed by every Microprocessor companies. This statement had and will make a huge difference in microprocessor development. Rapid shrinking of size with high speed and more memory is possible by G. Moore’s law.

Limitation of Moore’s Law: Because Moore's law suggests exponential growth; it is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Most experts expect Moore's law to hold for another two decades. Some studies have shown physical limitations could be reached by 2017.

Today’s development in computer:

Today’s computer industry is changing rapidly with the onset of the adoption of tablet and mobile computers. Many manufacturers have either brought out a tablet or are developing new models. Today consumers are faced with a myriad of platform choices when purchasing a computer. Computer platforms have changed from mainframes to desktop PCs to today’s laptop. Now tablet computers may be reaching for the industry crown. Some may wonder if the tablet platform is a final form of computing for the near future. Manufacturers appear to be guessing that they will be a dominant computing platform in the coming years. However, recent advances in computer hardware may change that outlook significantly. While many are betting on tablet computers and mobile application markets to be the next “big thing”, the reality may be a bit more challenging. Computer technology is developing at far greater speeds than ever imaginable in years past. The lifespan of a computer platform may now be measured in single years and even months. The tablet computer may be replaced by a newer computing device such as virtual reality goggles or even smart TVs. The very concept of computer platforms may change profoundly in the way that we may longer see computers as separate entities from other technological devices. The computer market is undergoing a major change into new territory. The traditional computer hardware platform is changing radically into an untold number of possibilities. Computers are being transformed from bulky desktops and laptops into hundreds of implementations that defy simple classifications. Today, we think of computers in terms of servers, desktops, laptops, tablets, smartphones, PDAs, and even watches. In the future, the implementation of computers will be so widespread that they may not exist as separate hardware products. The exception might be high-end supercomputers. Even today manufacturers are implementing computers into car radios, refrigerators, air conditioners, glucose monitors, and even thermometers. While this trend has continued for some time, today it is expanding at an amazing rate.

The present state of the Microprocessor’s development: 

Intel processors are most common processors if we say word processor from our mouth. Latest Intel processor is Intel® Core™ i7-4960X Processor. It has six cores with a 3.6 GHz clock frequency. Its cache is 15MB with 12 threads. AMD’s best microprocessor is AMD FX-8350 8-Core Black Edition. It has 8 cores with 8 threads. It has the speed of 4GHz clock frequency and 8MB cache.

Not only in PC’s development but smartphone and tablets uses the latest technology where processor name also comes in handy. Like high-end mobile devices like Apple iPhone, LG Google Nexus 5, HTC One max, etc. uses microprocessors. The rapid growth of Android devices certainly makes the processor be more fast and reliable. Latest processors for smartphones are A7 with 1.3 GHz 64 bit which is most popular processor embedded in iPhone, Qualcomm Snapdragon 600 and 800 with 1.9 GHz used in popular devices like Samsung and HTC, NVidia Tegra 4 and Tegra 4i commonly named as ARM processors has 2.3 GHz and 2.8GHz respectively with core advancing up to 8~16 cores now and is used in most smartphones and tablets like OPPO, ASUS, HP, etc. Intel Atom Z2580 Clover Trail+ has 2 GHz speed used mostly in Lenovo devices, etc. are commonly used processors in high end as well as low-end devices.

Future of Computer: What to expect?

Instruction-level Parallelism: The focus of computer designers are now began to move from the current state of the art of nearly one instruction per cycle to multiple instructions per cycle. This was driven by the fact that doing more operations in one cycle would allow the exploitation of additional circuit densities to increase system performance above that achievable by mere circuit switching speed improvements.

Task/Process Parallelism: An obvious source of parallelism is the multiple, independent tasks and processes which run simultaneously on most computer systems. This level of parallelism has been exploited naturally by Symmetric Multiprocessor (SMP) systems by running independent tasks or processes on separate processors. This is a trend that will continue. Recently, interest has been revived in exploiting task/process parallelism at the individual processor level.

Algorithmic Parallelism: Task/process parallelism is able to improve the throughput of a computer system by allowing more tasks/processes to be completed per unit time. Algorithmic parallelism attempts to improve the turnaround time for a single problem or task, and may actually negatively impact throughput.

Uniform Memory Access: This represents the sharing model of the most commercially successful symmetric multiprocessors. They are characterized by all processors having equal access to all memory and I/O. They typically run a single copy of the operating system that has been altered to exploit parallelism and to give the impression of a uniprocessor to the users and all uniprocessor application.

No Remote Memory Access: No Remote Memory Access (NORMA) machines basically do not share a memory, input, and output or operating system copies in it. The individual nodes in a NORMA machine cooperate with other nodes through the sending of messages. It basically helps in the bandwidth part of the computer.

Problems in fifth generation computer: Why not released?

-Sensitivity to interaction with the environment since quantum computers are going to be used in fifth generation computer

-Errors and their correction is probably the hardest task in fifth generation computers. Since the fifth generation is willing to make an approach to AI, thus errors are seen in the device but a correction to that task is certainly the biggest problem in fifth generation computers.

-After making AI, its decision shall be in an unknown state. This means that unless the system has specifically been prepared, our ability to control it remains limited. The average information of a system is given by its entropy. The determination of entropy would depend on the statistics obeyed by the object.

-High power dissipation becomes a critical barrier to frequency and performance scaling of a microprocessor. Depleted Substrate Transistor and advanced power management are promising ways to curtail the rapid growth of the microprocessor’s power dissipation.

Conclusion

We can certainly say that future industrialization is huge in the computer. From morning alarm to late good night chat is now in computerized form. In this situation, we cannot say we are unable to make variety of computer in minimized and reliable form but we can’t guarantee what will be its outcome in coming future.


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